A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
